What Makes This US Shutdown Different (and Harder to Resolve)?
Shutdowns are a repeat feature of US politics – but this one feels especially difficult to resolve because of political dynamics and deep-seated animosity among both major parties.
Some government services face a temporary halt, with approximately 750,000 employees likely to be placed on unpaid leave as Republicans and Democrats can't agree regarding budget legislation.
Votes aimed at ending the impasse have repeatedly failed, with little visibility on an off-ramp in this instance as both parties – as well as the nation's leader – perceive advantages in maintaining their positions.
Here are several key factors in which this shutdown distinct currently.
1. For Democrats, the focus is on Trump – beyond healthcare issues
The Democratic base have insisted over recent periods for their representatives more forcefully fights the current presidency. Currently the party leadership has a chance to show they have listened.
Earlier this year, Senate leader was fiercely criticised for helping pass a Republican spending bill thus preventing a government closure early this year. Now he's holding firm.
This is a chance for Democrats to show their ability to reclaim certain authority from a presidency that has moved aggressively on its agenda.
Opposing the Republican spending plan comes with political risk that the wider public will grow frustrated as the dispute drags on and consequences begin to mount.
Democratic representatives are using the shutdown fight to put a spotlight on ending healthcare financial support together with Republican-approved federal health program reductions for the poor, both facing public opposition.
They are also trying to curtail executive utilization of his executive powers to cancel or delay funding approved by Congress, which he has done with foreign aid and various federal programs.
Second, For Republicans, they see potential
The administration leader and one of his key officials have openly indicated their perspective that they smell a chance to advance further reductions in government employment implemented during in the Republican's second presidency so far.
The President himself said last week that the shutdown provided him with a "unique chance", and that he would look to cut "Democrat agencies".
The White House stated they would face the "unenviable task" of mass lay-offs to maintain critical federal operations should the impasse persist. The Press Secretary described this as "budgetary responsibility".
The extent of possible job cuts remains unclear, but the White House has been in discussions with federal budget authorities, the budgeting office, under the leadership of the key official.
The administration's financial chief has already announced the suspension of federal funding for Democratic-run parts of the country, including New York City and Chicago.
3. There's little trust on either side
Whereas past government closures typically involved late-night talks between the two parties aimed at restoring government services running again, there appears to be minimal cooperative willingness of collaboration this time.
Conversely, animosity prevails. Political tensions continued over the weekend, with Republicans and Democrats blaming each other for causing the impasse.
House Speaker a Republican, accused Democrats with insufficient commitment about negotiating, and holding out over a deal "for electoral protection".
Meanwhile, the Senate leader levelled the same accusation against their counterparts, saying that a majority party commitment to discuss healthcare subsidies after operations resume cannot be trusted.
The administration leader personally has escalated tensions by posting a controversial AI-generated image of the Senate leader along with another senior opposition figure, where the representative appears wearing traditional headwear and a moustache.
The representative and other Democrats called this racist, which was denied by the Vice-President.
Fourth, The American Economy is fragile
Experts project about 40% of government employees – more than 800,000 people – to face furlough as a result of the shutdown.
That will depress spending – with broader economic consequences, including halted environmental approvals, patent approvals, interrupted vendor payments and other kinds of federal operations connected to commercial interests comes to a halt.
The closure additionally introduces new uncertainty into an economy already being roiled by changes ranging from trade measures, earlier cuts to government spending, enforcement actions and technological advancements.
Analysts estimate that it could shave as much as 0.2 percentage points off US economic growth for each week it lasts.
But the economy typically recoups the majority of interrupted operations following resolution, as it would after disruption after major environmental events.
This might explain partially why the stock market have shown limited reaction to the ongoing impasse.
On the other hand, analysts say that if administration officials implement his threat of mass firings, economic harm might become extended in duration.